This AEI commentary critically analyzes the AI Futures Project’s ‘AI 2040: Plan A’ scenario, which proposes delaying superintelligence until 2040 via a verified international slowdown, public research-sharing, and allowing more companies to reach the frontier. The author questions the scenario’s economic and governance assumptions, particularly around who would control advanced AI systems, while noting the report shares with rival scenarios the premise that an intelligence explosion is likely and could become possible as soon as 2030 absent regulatory intervention.
