Economist Jed Kolko of the Peterson Institute for International Economics argues that research into AI’s effect on labor markets remains inconclusive and premature. Studies comparing occupational employment trends against measures of AI exposure produce conflicting results depending on the data and methodology used. Kolko notes that the economic effects of large language models typically take years to fully materialize, and identifies gaps in current research on productivity, labor supply, and workforce transitions that need deeper study before firm conclusions can be drawn.
